Price Growth Accelerates in Central Tokyo

The average price per square meter for newly built マンション (manshon, freehold condominiums) in central Tokyo climbed 8.2% year-on-year to ¥856,100 in March 2026, according to the Real Estate Economic Institute. This marks the 70th consecutive month of price increases, a streak that began in mid-2020 and shows no sign of reversal. Properties priced above ¥100 million, known as 億ション (oku-shon, literally “hundred-million-yen condominiums”), reached 5,669 units in 2025, an increase of more than 2,000 units from the prior year. Within that segment, ultra-luxury inventory above ¥300 million grew 14% in the twelve months ending March 2026, concentrated almost entirely in Minato-ku (港区), Shibuya-ku (渋谷区), and Chiyoda-ku (千代田区).

The supply constraint remains structural. New construction starts in the 23-ward area fell 6% in 2025 due to rising labor costs and stricter zoning enforcement in low-rise residential zones. Developers have responded by shifting product mix upward. The median unit size for new releases in Minato-ku rose from 78 square meters in 2023 to 91 square meters in 2026, and the median price climbed from ¥148 million to ¥187 million over the same period. Foreign buyers accounted for approximately 11% of transactions above ¥200 million in the first quarter of 2026, up from 8% in 2023, driven primarily by Singapore, Hong Kong, and North American buyers seeking 永住権 (eijuuken, Japanese permanent residency) or long-term residence under the business manager visa category.

Ultra-Luxury Inventory Concentrated in Three Wards

Of the 847 properties listed above ¥300 million in the REINS (the national MLS operated by the Real Estate Information Network) database as of April 15, 2026, 612 are located in Minato-ku, Shibuya-ku, or Chiyoda-ku. Minato-ku alone accounts for 398 listings, with Azabu (麻布), Roppongi (六本木), and Shirokane (白金) representing the highest concentration. Azabudai Hills, which completed its residential tower in late 2023, contributed 22 resale listings above ¥300 million in the first quarter of 2026, with an average asking price of ¥438 million for units ranging from 105 to 160 square meters.

Chiyoda-ku inventory is dominated by properties within 800 meters of the Imperial Palace. The Ichibancho (一番町) and Nibancho (二番町) districts recorded a median asking price of ¥1,620,000 per square meter in March 2026, the highest in Tokyo and a 12% increase from the prior year. Shibuya-ku listings above ¥300 million are concentrated in Hiroo (広尾), Ebisu (恵比寿), and Omotesando (表参道), with Hiroo recording the longest average time on market at 118 days, compared to 76 days in Azabu and 54 days in Ichibancho. Buyers in Chiyoda-ku prioritize proximity to international schools and embassies, which has kept absorption rates high despite elevated prices.

Land Price Appreciation Drives Long-Term Value

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism released the 2026 official land price survey on March 23, 2026. Residential land in central Tokyo appreciated 6.8% year-on-year, the fifth consecutive year of gains and the highest rate since the asset bubble period ended in 1991. Commercial land in Minato-ku rose 9.1%, with the Toranomon (虎ノ門) district recording the steepest increase at 14.3%, driven by the completion of Toranomon Hills Station Tower and surrounding redevelopment.

For foreign buyers evaluating Tokyo real estate, understanding the distinction between building depreciation and land appreciation is critical. Japanese tax law applies a statutory depreciation schedule to buildings, with reinforced-concrete structures depreciated over 47 years for tax purposes. However, land does not depreciate. In central Tokyo, where land accounts for 70% to 85% of total property value in prime locations, this creates a dynamic where the asset appreciates in market value even as the building component depreciates on paper for tax reporting. A 2026 analysis by the Land Research Institute found that properties purchased in Minato-ku in 2016 appreciated an average of 38% in nominal terms over the ten-year period, with land value gains more than offsetting building depreciation.

Buyers holding 永住権 (permanent residency) or planning to acquire it should note that Japan taxes worldwide income for tax residents. However, the capital gains tax on the sale of a primary residence held for more than five years is capped at 20.315% (15% national income tax, 5% resident tax, and 0.315% reconstruction surtax), which compares favorably to short-term capital gains rates in many OECD countries. The freehold structure of Tokyo condominiums also simplifies estate planning and repatriation, as ownership is recorded in the 登記 (touki, legal title registry) maintained by the Legal Affairs Bureau, with no leasehold expiration or ground rent obligations.

Mortgage Access for Non-Residents Remains Limited

CBRE Japan’s 2026 market outlook notes that financing availability for non-resident foreign buyers has not expanded meaningfully since 2023. As of April 2026, only three major banks offer residential mortgages to non-residents without permanent residency: SMBC Prestia, Shinsei Bank, and Tokyo Star Bank. Loan-to-value ratios for non-residents typically cap at 50% to 60%, compared to 80% for Japanese nationals and permanent residents. Interest rates for non-resident borrowers range from 1.8% to 2.6% for variable-rate products, approximately 80 to 120 basis points above rates available to residents.

The 手付金 (tetsuke-kin, earnest-money deposit) is typically 10% of the purchase price and is paid at the time the purchase agreement is signed. For a ¥300 million property, this amounts to ¥30 million, which must be transferred in Japanese yen from a Japanese bank account or via international wire transfer, with the buyer responsible for foreign exchange conversion costs and any transfer fees. The balance is due at the 決済 (kessai, settlement and closing), which typically occurs 30 to 60 days after contract signing. At closing, the buyer’s 宅建士 (takken-shi, Japan’s licensed real estate transaction specialist) coordinates the transfer of funds, the execution of the 登記 (title transfer), and the handover of keys.

For buyers planning to finance a purchase above ¥300 million, the limited mortgage availability for non-residents means most transactions in this segment are all-cash. In the first quarter of 2026, 78% of transactions above ¥300 million involving foreign buyers were completed without mortgage financing, according to data compiled by the Tokyo Kantei research institute.

Transaction Volume and Days on Market

Transaction volume for properties priced above ¥200 million in the 23-ward area reached 1,847 units in 2025, a 9% increase from 2024. The average time on market for properties above ¥300 million was 89 days in the first quarter of 2026, down from 104 days in the same period of 2025. Properties priced above ¥500 million took an average of 137 days to sell, with the longest absorption times recorded in Setagaya-ku (世田谷区) and Meguro-ku (目黒区), where buyers prioritize larger floor plans and garden access over proximity to business districts.

The 重要事項説明 (juuyou-jikou-setsumei, the statutory pre-contract disclosure meeting) is conducted by a licensed 宅建士 and covers all material facts about the property, including building age, structural inspections, management fee and reserve fund balances, earthquake resistance certification, and any known defects or planned repairs. For foreign buyers, this meeting is typically conducted in Japanese with a professional interpreter present, though some agencies offer English-language summaries prepared in advance. The meeting must be completed before the purchase agreement is signed, and buyers are entitled to withdraw from the transaction without penalty if material facts are misrepresented or omitted.

Koukyuu is a private buyer’s advisory for distinguished Tokyo residences in Azabu (麻布), Hiroo (広尾), and Shirokane (白金), focused exclusively on transactions of ¥300 million and above. A licensed 宅建士 (takken-shi) personally handles every stage of the engagement, from the first consultation to the signing, a continuity most Tokyo agencies do not offer. Buyers seeking a curated, English-language advisory process may book a private consultation).

Neighborhood Price Benchmarks

The table below summarizes median asking prices per square meter for properties above ¥300 million in select neighborhoods as of April 2026, based on REINS data:

• Ichibancho, Chiyoda-ku: ¥1,620,000 per sqm
• Motoazabu, Minato-ku: ¥1,480,000 per sqm
• Shirokane, Minato-ku: ¥1,390,000 per sqm
• Hiroo, Shibuya-ku: ¥1,310,000 per sqm
• Omotesando, Shibuya-ku: ¥1,280,000 per sqm
• Roppongi, Minato-ku: ¥1,210,000 per sqm

These figures reflect asking prices for newly built or recently renovated properties with management structures that include 24-hour concierge services, guest suites, and private parking. Older buildings, typically those constructed before 2010, trade at a 15% to 25% discount to new construction in the same neighborhood, though properties with recent seismic retrofits or major renovations command premiums within the resale segment.

Buyers evaluating the most expensive neighborhoods in Tokyo should note that price per square meter alone does not capture the full cost structure. Monthly management fees for luxury buildings in Minato-ku range from ¥800 to ¥1,400 per square meter, and the 修繕積立金 (shuuzen-tsumitate-kin, building repair reserve fund) adds another ¥300 to ¥600 per square meter. For a 120-square-meter unit, total monthly fees can reach ¥240,000, a recurring cost that should be factored into long-term ownership projections.

Outlook for the Second Half of 2026

The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.25% in its April 2026 meeting, citing stable inflation and moderate GDP growth. Mortgage rates for residents are expected to remain below 1.5% for variable-rate products through the end of 2026, which continues to support demand in the ¥100 million to ¥200 million segment. However, the ultra-luxury segment above ¥300 million is less sensitive to interest rate movements, as the majority of buyers in this category do not rely on financing.

Developer pipelines for 2026 and 2027 show a concentration of new supply in the ¥150 million to ¥250 million range, with fewer projects targeting the ¥300 million-plus segment. The Toranomon-Azabudai corridor will see three additional residential towers complete in late 2026 and early 2027, adding approximately 180 units above ¥300 million to the market. Presale absorption rates for these projects have ranged from 60% to 75% within the first six months of marketing, indicating sustained demand despite elevated pricing.

Foreign buyer interest remains concentrated among individuals seeking long-term residence or permanent residency, with speculative investment activity accounting for less than 15% of foreign transactions in the luxury segment. The yen’s relative weakness against the US dollar and Singapore dollar, trading at approximately ¥144 to the dollar and ¥107 to the Singapore dollar as of mid-April 2026, has provided a modest tailwind for foreign buyers, though currency volatility remains a consideration for those repatriating funds in the future.